POLSCI 4SS3
Winter 2023
Groups put in contact later today
Topic is highly negotiable
Don’t forget to schedule a meeting before break!
Elements of models (signature, functional relations, probability distributions)
Panel surveys: Good for understanding before-after effects, expensive to conduct
Elements of data strategies and answer strategies
Research designs for sensitive questions
Lab: Practice writing research designs on your own
Sampling (random, nonrandom)
Treatment assignment (if applicable)
Measurement (validity, reliability)
Answer characterization (domain, units, outcomes, conditions)
Uncertainty (Bayesian, frequentist)
Procedure (e.g. OLS, difference-in-means)
Example
What is the proportion of French speakers?
What is the effect of taking a political science course on political interest?
Example
Has the proportion of French speakers increased?
Is there an effect of taking a political science course on political interest?
Inattention
Satisficing
Limited options
Demand effects
Social desirability/sensitivity bias
Inattention
Satisficing
Limited options
Demand effects
Social desirability/sensitivity bias
Add noise to the question
Two approaches:
Distract from the sensitive attitude/behavior
Guarantee anonymity
For this question, I want you to answer yes or no.
For this question, I want you to answer yes or no. But I want you to consider the number of your dice throw.
For this question, I want you to answer yes or no. But I want you to consider the number of your dice throw. If shows on the dice, tell me no.
For this question, I want you to answer yes or no. But I want you to consider the number of your dice throw. If shows on the dice, tell me no. If shows, tell me yes.
For this question, I want you to answer yes or no. But I want you to consider the number of your dice throw. If shows on the dice, tell me no. If shows, tell me yes. But if another number shows, tell me your own opinion about the question.
[TURN AWAY FROM RESPONDENT]
Now you throw the dice so that I cannot see what comes out.
For this question, I want you to answer yes or no. But I want you to consider the number of your dice throw. If shows on the dice, tell me no. If shows, tell me yes. But if another number shows, tell me your own opinion about the question.
[TURN AWAY FROM RESPONDENT]
Have you thrown the dice?
For this question, I want you to answer yes or no. But I want you to consider the number of your dice throw. If shows on the dice, tell me no. If shows, tell me yes. But if another number shows, tell me your own opinion about the question.
[TURN AWAY FROM RESPONDENT]
Have you picked it up?
For this question, I want you to answer yes or no. But I want you to consider the number of your dice throw. If shows on the dice, tell me no. If shows, tell me yes. But if another number shows, tell me your own opinion about the question.
Now, during the height of the conflict in 2007 and 2008 (in Afghanistan), did you know any militants, like a family member, a friend, or someone you talked to on a regular basis?
Please, before you answer, take note of the number you rolled on the dice.
We know that about \(1/6 \approx 0.17\) respondents said yes because they rolled a
So if \(30\%\) in total said yes
We have \(\widehat{Y} = 0.3 - 0.17 = 0.13\) as our estimate of the proportion of the population who know a member of a militant organization
But we do not know who they are in our survey!
1. Honesty given protection
People respond honestly when guaranteed anonymity.
2. One-sided lying
Those who do not hold the sensitive trait never falsely claim to bear it.
Now I am going to read you three things that make people angry or upset.
Now I am going to read you three things that make people angry or upset. After I read all three, just tell me HOW MANY of them upset you.
Now I am going to read you three things that make people angry or upset. After I read all three, just tell me HOW MANY of them upset you. I don’t want to know which ones, just HOW MANY.
Now I am going to read you three things that make people angry or upset. After I read all three, just tell me HOW MANY of them upset you. I don’t want to know which ones, just HOW MANY.
Respondents are randomly assigned to conditions
Differences in responses can only be attributed to the presence/absence of the sensitive item
So \(\widehat{Y} = \text{Mean(treatment)} - \text{Mean(control)})\) estimates the proportion in the population of interest who would get upset if a black family moves next door
But we do not know who they are in our survey!
1. No liars
Those who do not hold the sensitive item never falsely claim to bear it.
2. No design effects
Including the sensitive item does not change how participants respond to the baseline items
Building trust with respondents
Variants of the randomized response and list experiment
Below you will read three things that sometimes people oppose or are against. After you read all three, just tell us HOW MANY of them you OPPOSE. We don’t want to know which ones, just HOW MANY.
4. Granting citizenship to a legal immigrant who is Muslim
4. Granting citizenship to a legal immigrant who is Christian
Focus on: What are they good for?